OIC conclusion

While here in Europe we are wondering about future wars in the M.E., whether we should participate or not and which sort of impact this will have on our economic problems, the emergency meeting of Islamic countries carried on in Jeddah, and it ended with interesting outcomes .
In their final communique' they stressed on the importance of the Palestinian issue, the commitment toward Muslims in Myanmar and the concern for the situation in Mali .
Of course Syria was central to the conference and the attention of the media was appointed on the suspension of its membership .
In my humble opinion the real development, was the strong condemnation of terrorism, which in this particular moment is extremely important, and the call that H.M. King Abdullah made, for the creation of a center having the role to sort out differences among Muslim sects .
Examining this under a practical point of view, Muslim leaders, and the Saudi in particular, realized that giving green light to Israel for a strike on Iran, would somehow prevent them from being in charge of the Syrian situation .
And that, at a later stage, would reduce the power of control they currently have in the M.E.
So sitting close to Ahmadinejad, was not only a move to reassure Muslims on the issue of unity .
Rather they must have reached some sort of agreement, which for now will keep Iran on the safe side, if Americans can convince Israel, and will push them to help not only to end the Syrian matter, but also to make things more stable on other fronts like Yemen for example, where they are very active .
Again this proves that Bandar bin Sultan was appointed exactly for this change of direction, towards diplomatic ways, other than using his strong hand .

Thicking faster

Israel is a small country with certain capabilities located in Iran's backyard. And Israel, not the United States, is threatened almost weekly, if not daily, with annihilation by Iranian leaders.
Iran official: Israeli threats of imminent strike are mere 'psychological warfare' - Israel News | Haaretz Daily Newspaper

Small but powerful .
I don't think this is just psychological warfare .
Israel would have liked to launch a strike since many months now, but America did not allow .
And not much for generosity, rather due to the economic crisis .
Here in Europe our system is on the verge of collapse .
We can't afford a strike on Iran, with an ongoing war in Syria .
And still we are counting the costs of the so called springs .
Obama is between two fires : the Israeli lobbies he needs to be re-elected, and Euro crisis .
If we go down, America comes with us .
And for the record, their banks and debts started all this .
Ideally, but war is never thus, if Arabs fix Syria, and Israel sets things with Iran, all well that ends well .
But I very much doubt it .

Update :

A he handed in his official resignation, Dichter also explained the move in a post on his Facebook page, stating that his decision to accept the role of Home Front Defense Minister was a decision to serve the country in the best way that he could. jpost

Not a peaceful guy .

Message in a bottle

Syrian officials were not invited to the meeting. This led the Iranian envoys to raise objections. “The Syrians are still part of the OIC, and they therefore should have been invited to the preparatory meeting,” one of the diplomats quoted the Iranians as saying. However, there were few backers of this Iranian view.
OIC to expel murderous Syrian regime

It was a sort of message for Iran, rather than a punishment for Syria :
we make the rules . Either you are with us or against us .
The Syrian issue will be solved in few weeks or months, paying a high price, namely the growth of al Qaeda .
Iran is next .
They were invited as I said earlier, to show a gesture of good will, but letting them understand the conditions .

In my humble opinion Saudi Arabia made a technical mistake, which is, to trust the Americans and themselves, believing that after most of the M.E. is fixed and reshaped, everything will be like before, and Gulf countries will be left managing things alone .
Wrong .
One who understood this, is Vladimir Putin, who is very well aware of the fact that he is on the list .
Later there will be a big battle between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, and things might turn wild for al Saud .

Air spaces

Despite saber rattling in the media, analysts said on Saturday that it was highly unlikely Israel would cross Saudi air space in a potential attack on Iran.
A recent UPI report that Saudi Arabia warned Israel that it would intercept Israeli fighter jets that crosses its border has created a stir, even though Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak reportedly said that he never got such a message from the Saudis. 
So far the Saudis have stayed quiet on issue.al Arabiya

There is quite a good number of reasons why Saudi Arabia cannot openly support Israeli actions at the moment .

First of all, that would be detrimental in the eyes not only of their people, but of the entire Arab world .
And in the eventuality of a spring on its soil, that will be the drop that would cause the vase overflow .
Arab citizens are very well aware of undercover relations held by their governments, Saudi in particular, with Israel, and that is also the reason why the Palestinian problem is still far to be solved .
But despite being very patient and loyal to their rulers, such a blatant move would make them raise more than an eyebrow .

Then, in the overall reshape of the M.E., on which all superpowers are working, the Saudi role would be diminished in favour of Israel, the other great ally of America, and within the Arab chessboard as well .

Also, public support for just one player, wouldn't give them the many chances they have, while playing under the soil, to act on different fronts, which is what prince Bandar Bin Sultan is supposed to be doing right now, from Iraq to Yemen .

We will see anyway, if there is a serious will to solve issues diplomatically, at the emergency conference in Riyadh next week .

Oman : land of sand and Sultans

The story of Shahrzad Mir-Qolikhan, who has been freed these days from a long detention caused by her espionage activities, according to American authorities, confirms in my opinion what I stated previously .
Saudi Arabia and the US are trying to fix the Iranian issue , at least on the short term, in quite a peaceful way, in order to obtain some backing on the Syrian front .
And once again in a legal dispute between America and Iran, the Sultanate of Oman is the quiet protagonist .

Oman is a country with a great potential, but relatively poor in energetic resources, which is the reason for its balanced and mediation policies .
Sultan Qaboos, who came to power through a bloodless coup surrounded by legends, has this great ability to lead the country, keeping in account the needs of his people, and to lean on foreign help, specially British, on terms of equality .
He never allowed anybody to overcome his power and his country sovereignity .
The main issue, on the long run, is the riddle of his succession .
Omanis dream of a surprise heir who will come and lead gracefully same as he did after his father .
Reality is, that there is no official heir, and in case the family won't find an agreement, then a paper where he already indicated a name, will be opened soon after his death, so the successor will be installed .
In the light of recent developments brought by the Arab springs, a more interesting outcome might open, according to some commentators who pondered some reforms H.M. accomplished lately, by giving more power to his people : he may pave the way to a constitutional monarchy .
This will take quite a long time, as Oman has strong tribal traditions and is still very young in the exercise of the majilis ash shura (the small parliament having an advisory role), but it seems a very feasible solution .

There are two issues being reasons of concern for the stability of Sultan Qaboos reign : one is the relationship with his people, and the other is of religious nature .
Omanis do love their sultan deeply .
A foreign citizen, entering the country for a short vacation, will immediately feel this loving atmosphere which doesn't come out of fear, but by the awareness of what their ruler has done for them .
Nevertheless the young generation (mostly in their 30s and 40s) acknowledge that still he hasn't been capable to realize their dreams, in terms of freedom of expression .
Still control on media and internet is very tight .
They attribute this, either to H.M. advisors, or to his fear to grant complete freedom .

The religious issue comes from the South, where people follow all the Sunni sect, rather the Wahabi type, unlike the rest of the country which is, according to the official annual census, Ibadi .
Their belief is very close to the Sunni, but with some differences .
The danger from the south, is that they often claim their right to separate and join their fellow Saudi Muslims .
It has happened in the past, that they followed the dates of Islamic celebrations as per Saudi calendar, rejecting the Omani religious authority .
For a couple of years, H.M., slightly irritated by this attitude, did not go and stay in Salalah, despite this being one of his favourite spots, as his mother was from there, and he spent his childhood in the palace with her .

So truly Oman is a sort of happy paradise for both locals and expats, but presents some criticality points, which needs to be addressed and handled with extreme caution, or they might be detrimental for the stability of the country .

Why Ahmadinejad will go

The question on everybody's lips these days, is why King Abdullah invited president Ahmadinejad, and also what are the expectations from this emergency summit .
I think that if we make a guess on why the Iranian leader accepted, maybe we may have a full picture .
The answers in my opinion, are mainly in prince Bandar recent appointment .
Many commentators saw it, as installing a hard hand man in a key position to quickly solve issues, which on the long run might be detrimental to Saudi Arabia both domestically and in foreign politics related environment .
In my opinion the new chief of the Saudi agency, was precisely chosen for opposite reasons, that is, to try a more effective diplomatic path, that actually the kingdom is not practicing because they were not having the right people in key positions .
And Ahmadinejad knows it, which is why he promptly accepted .
Not that Islamic conferences are problems solving, but they are a chance to meet protagonists in an attempt of mediation .
And actually the Iranian president is not exactly in a favourable position .
When Israel decides to go for a strike, that will be the end for him and his people .
So he most probably wants to see, if at least a compromise on Syria can be found, and that would give him a break for some time .
We'll see what happens .